Startup Financial Modeler

/startup-financial-modeling

Build 3-5 year startup financial models with cohort-based revenue, full cost structure, cash flow, headcount, scenarios, and fundraising integration. Investor-ready and sanity-checked against benchmarks.

Usage

/startup-financial-modeling $ARGUMENTS

What I Need From You

Business model (SaaS, marketplace, e-commerce, services), current traction (customers, MRR, cash balance), pricing, and any actuals you can paste or upload (customer counts by month, expenses). If you have nothing yet, we build from assumptions and benchmarks.

Model Structure

Revenue (cohort-based):

MRR = Sum over cohorts (Cohort Size x Retention Rate x ARPU)
ARR = MRR x 12

Inputs: monthly new customers, retention by month, ARPU, expansion revenue.

Costs (four buckets): COGS (hosting, payment processing, variable support), S&M (CAC spend, sales comp, marketing programs), R&D (engineering, product, design), G&A (exec, finance/legal/HR, facilities).

Cash flow:

Monthly Burn = Monthly Revenue - Monthly Expenses
Runway = Cash Balance / Monthly Burn

Headcount: role-based hiring plan with fully-loaded cost per employee. Typical early SaaS mix: Engineering 40-50%, S&M 25-35%, G&A 10-15%, CS 5-10%.

Time horizon: monthly detail Years 1-2, quarterly Year 3, annual Years 4-5.

Three-Scenario Framework

Always model three cases: Conservative (P10) -- slower acquisition, higher churn, longer sales cycles; use for cash management. Base (P50) -- realistic; use for board reporting. Optimistic (P90) -- use for upside planning. A single scenario is never accurate.

Business Model Templates

• SaaS: Net New MRR = New + Expansion - Contraction - Churned. Targets: gross margin 75-85%, CAC payback < 12 months, net retention 100-120%. Reference shape: Year 1 $500K ARR, Year 2 $2.5M, Year 3 $8M.
• Marketplace: Net revenue = GMV x take rate (10-30% by category); contribution margin 60-70%; model buyer and seller CAC separately.
• E-commerce: revenue = traffic x conversion x AOV x frequency; gross margin 40-60%; CAC payback 3-6 months.
• Services/agency: billable capacity x rate x utilization (target 70-85%); gross margin 50-70%.

Fundraising Integration

Post-Money = Pre-Money + Investment
Dilution % = Investment / Post-Money

Plan use of funds against milestones (product launch, first $1M ARR, CAC break-even, next round) and raise enough to reach the next milestone plus a 6-month buffer.

Common Pitfalls (I will check for these)

1. Optimistic revenue -- model realistic churn and acquisition; startups rarely hit aggressive projections.
2. Underestimated costs -- add ~20% buffer; use fully-loaded compensation.
3. Revenue is not cash -- model payment terms and cash conversion timing.
4. Static headcount -- roles take 3-6 months to fill plus 3-6 months to ramp; assume 10-15% annual attrition.
5. No downside plan -- state what happens if the base case fails.

Validation Checklist

• Growth achievable (roughly 3x in Year 2, 2x in Year 3)
• LTV/CAC > 3, CAC payback < 18 months
• Burn multiple < 2.0 by Years 2-3
• Revenue per employee growing
• Gross margin appropriate for the business model
• Benchmarked against comparable companies at the same stage

Output

A month-by-month model in tables (revenue build, expense build, cash flow, headcount) plus a summary page with key metrics per scenario and the fundraising math. Every assumption listed separately so you can flex it.